Trade Under Pressure: How US Tariffs Are Reshaping the Bruce-Grey Economy

Last updated: September 27, 2026

The trade war between Canada and the United States has entered its second year, and Bruce-Grey businesses — from beef farmers on the Saugeen Bruce Peninsula to manufacturers in Owen Sound — are feeling the effects. With the latest round of 50 per cent US tariffs taking effect on August 22, 2026, and Canada’s dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs following on September 8, the region’s economy is navigating a level of trade disruption not seen in decades.

Here’s how the key sectors of the Bruce-Grey economy are being affected.

The National Picture

Before diving local, it helps to understand the scale. The US currently applies tariffs ranging from 10 to 50 per cent on roughly 5 per cent of Canadian exports, while more than 80 per cent of goods cross the border duty-free under CUSMA. The average effective US tariff rate on Canadian imports now sits around 5.5 per cent — up from roughly 3 per cent before the trade war escalated.

Ontario is one of the most affected provinces, with roughly 9.5 per cent of its US-bound exports hit by the latest measures. The economic drag is modest at the macro level — RBC Economics estimates GDP growth will slow from a projected 1.0 per cent to 0.9 per cent in 2026, and KPMG pegs the overall hit at 0.3–0.5 per cent of GDP over the next year. But those national averages mask concentrated pain in specific sectors and communities.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has identified communities in Ontario’s manufacturing belt — Oshawa, London, and Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo — as particularly vulnerable. Bruce-Grey, with its diversified mix of agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and tourism, faces a different but real set of pressures.

What the Numbers Tell Us Locally

Bruce County Economic Development conducted a survey of local businesses on tariff impacts, drawing over 80 responses. The results paint a picture of a regional economy significantly exposed to cross-border trade:

35.7 per cent of businesses rely on US trade for more than a quarter of their revenue
59.8 per cent have experienced increased costs for imported goods or materials
79.3 per cent have experienced or anticipate supply chain disruptions due to tariffs

These are striking numbers for a region not typically thought of as an export powerhouse. They reflect the reality of a deeply integrated North American economy — even businesses that don’t export directly often depend on US-sourced inputs, components, or equipment.

Both Bruce County and Grey County have launched dedicated business support initiatives in response. Bruce County added a Tariff Support page to its Business to Bruce website, while Grey County launched a Business Support Hub offering guidance on navigating trade disruption.

Agriculture: Beef, Dairy, and the Uneven Hit

Grey-Bruce is one of Ontario’s most important livestock regions. The heavy concentration of beef and hog operations has, in some ways, provided a cushion: livestock and primary protein exports were largely excluded from the most severe tariff measures. Farmland values in livestock-dense areas like Grey-Bruce have held up better than in crop-focused regions to the south.

But local producers aren’t breathing easy. In May, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound MP Alex Ruff met with Grey and Bruce County beef farmers to discuss trade concerns. Farmer Don Hargrave warned that weakening domestic production capacity — at a time when imports already represent 30 per cent of Canadian beef consumption and over 40 per cent in Ontario — risks long-term food security.

The dairy sector faces a more targeted hit. The US Section 338 list applied tariffs to dozens of dairy products, most significantly whey, of which more than $100 million worth was sold to the US in 2025. While cheese, yogurt, and butter were spared, the measures directly affect dairy processors in the region.

Honey producers were also targeted, with natural honey included in the tariff schedule — a potentially severe blow for the region’s beekeepers.

Energy: Bruce Power and the Supply Chain Opportunity

Bruce Power is the region’s economic anchor, and its $4–5 billion annual economic footprint makes it a significant factor in the trade war story. The company is in an unusual position: its product (electricity) is not subject to trade tariffs, and 95 per cent of its spending already stays in Canada.

But the broader trade environment has created both risk and opportunity for Bruce Power and its network of suppliers. In September, the company’s Made-in-Canada Council hosted a Domestic Supply Chain Summit aimed at forging relationships and strengthening domestic supply chains. Participants were invited to support a “Canadian at our Core” pledge — a commitment to exploring Canadian suppliers and manufacturing partnerships, particularly for businesses hurt by global trade uncertainty.

For local manufacturers and fabricators that supply Bruce Power — many of which also serve US markets — the summit represents a potential pivot point. The company is actively seeking to replace imported components with Canadian-made alternatives, which could open new revenue streams for local firms.

Manufacturing: Concentrated Pain

Ontario’s manufacturing sector carries the heaviest burden of the trade war, and Bruce-Grey’s manufacturers are not immune. The new Section 338 tariffs directly affect electrical equipment, plastics, fabricated metal products, and general-purpose machinery — categories that represent a meaningful share of the region’s industrial base.

Canada’s counter-tariffs on US-made steel, aluminum, and industrial goods add a further complication. While they are designed to protect domestic producers, they also raise input costs for manufacturers that rely on cross-border supply chains.

The federal government’s $7.5 billion support package (August 2026) includes targeted liquidity supports through the Business Development Bank of Canada, a $2 billion Canada Strong Diversification Fund, and expanded EI flexibilities for affected workers. Ontario’s $40 million Trade-Impacted Communities Program — available to municipal governments and economic development organizations — was open for applications through summer 2026, though intake has now closed.

Tourism: The Trade War’s Quiet Victim

One of the most significant local impacts may be in tourism — not directly from tariffs on goods, but from the chill they have cast over cross-border travel.

Canadian visits to the US have fallen roughly 25 per cent compared to pre-trade-war levels, according to RBC Economics. Land travel has been hit hardest, down 33.5 per cent. This has created an unexpected opportunity for domestic destinations, including the Bruce Peninsula, Sauble Beach, and Grey County’s ski and trail tourism.

But the picture is more complicated than simply “Canadians stay home.” Bruce-Grey tourism operators who rely on US visitors — particularly in cottage country and along the Lake Huron shoreline — report mixed conditions. Some have seen a modest uptick in Canadian visitors choosing local destinations over US alternatives, while others note that their US visitor base has held relatively steady, likely because the region draws from nearby border states like Michigan, Ohio, and New York, where travel patterns are ingrained.

The broader shift matters. Grey Bruce News reported in March 2026 that local tourism businesses were exploring ways to extend the shoulder season and reduce reliance on peak summer crowds — a strategy that makes even more sense in a trade-war environment where economic uncertainty may affect household travel budgets.

What Comes Next

The trajectory of the trade war remains uncertain. The US Section 338 tariffs are layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, and autos, with no expiry date. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs mirror that structure. Analysts at KPMG estimate that if the current tariff regime becomes permanent, the cumulative drag on Canadian GDP could reach 1.0–1.5 per cent, with a potential loss of 25,000 to 40,000 jobs by the end of 2027.

For Bruce-Grey, the outlook is one of adaptation rather than crisis — at least for now. The region’s diversified economy, its anchor in Bruce Power’s domestically-focused spending, and the resilience of its livestock sector provide buffers that some manufacturing-heavy communities lack. But the survey data from Bruce County makes clear that nearly four in five local businesses are feeling supply chain strain, and that number is unlikely to improve without a resolution at the negotiating table.

This piece will be updated as new trade developments occur and more local data becomes available. Know how tariffs are affecting your business or organization? [Send us feedback.](mailto:[email protected]?subject=Feedback: Trade Under Pressure)